Manuel Quintero

Welcome!

I'm a fourth-year PhD student at MIT in the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS) and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS), advised by Professor Tamara Broderick.

My interests lie broadly in statistics and machine learning, particularly causal inference and interpretability. More recently, I've become especially interested in developing machine learning methods and using AI tools to improve healthcare, with applications to disease understanding, diagnosis, treatment, and clinical decision-making.

Before MIT, I did a master's in mathematical statistics at Cambridge (Part III), and before that I studied applied math and economics at ITAM in Mexico City, where I spent a few years running the analysis for field experiments on gender-based violence and misinformation.

News

Fall 2026
Teaching MITx 18.6501x, Fundamentals of Statistics, as instructor and TA.
Apr 2025
Presented our work on functional decompositions at the DATA-FM workshop, ICLR 2025.
Jan 2025
Dec 2024
Oral presentation at the ATTRIB workshop, NeurIPS 2024.
2023
Our Egypt study was published in Nature Human Behaviour.

What I work on

Explaining group differencesDecomposing why an outcome differs between two populations, and when those explanations can be trusted.
Causal inference & interpretabilityWhat actually changes when we intervene, and why a model predicts what it does.
ML for healthcareMethods for disease understanding, diagnosis, treatment and clinical decisions.

Background

2023 – 2027
MITPhD, Social and Engineering Systems & Statistics · LIDS, IDSS, SDSC
2022 – 2023
University of CambridgeMaster's in Mathematical Statistics (Part III) · statistics, probability, optimization
2015 – 2020
ITAM, Mexico CityBS Applied Mathematics and BA Economics

Outside of work

I enjoy spending time outdoors: cycling, swimming, being in the mountains, and lately, rowing.

The best way to reach me is by email. You can find my address on my CV.

Research

My PhD work is in statistics and machine learning: how to explain differences between populations, causal inference, and interpretability, with a growing focus on healthcare. Before that, I analyzed randomized field experiments on media, misinformation and gender-based violence.

Methods · PhD

PreprintarXiv · 2026

Do covariates explain why these groups differ? The choice of reference group can reverse conclusions in the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition

Manuel Quintero, Advik Shreekumar, William T. Stephenson, Tamara Broderick

The Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition splits a gap between two groups into differences in covariates and differences in outcomes given covariates. It requires picking one group as the reference, and we show that choice can flip the substantive conclusion, even with flexible models like a pretrained transformer. Report both directions.

PreprintarXiv · 2025

Network and Risk Analysis of Surety Bonds

Tamara Broderick, Ali Jadbabaie, Vanessa Lin, Manuel Quintero, Arnab Sarker, Sean R. Sinclair α–β

Large construction projects link many contractors, so one failure can spread. We model the contractor network as a directed graph, extend the Friedkin–Johnsen model to simulate how failures propagate, and find about 2% higher exposure for an insurer once network effects are included.

OralATTRIB workshop, NeurIPS 2024 · also presented at DATA-FM workshop, ICLR 2025

Common functional decompositions can mis-attribute differences in outcomes between populations

Manuel Quintero, William Stephenson, Advik Shreekumar, Tamara Broderick

Extending the Kitagawa–Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition with nonlinear tools like functional ANOVA or accumulated local effects seems natural. We show these can blame outcome differences on factors that are identical in both populations, and characterize when that happens.

Field experiments & policy

PublishedNature Human Behaviour · 2023

Empowering women facing gender-based violence amid COVID-19 through media campaigns

Fotini Christia, Horacio Larreguy, Elizabeth Parker-Magyar, Manuel Quintero α–β

A randomized evaluation in Egypt of media campaigns aimed at women facing gender-based violence during the pandemic. I led the statistical analysis.

Working paper2023

Can We Shield Citizens Against Misinformation Through Digital Literacy Training and Fact-checks?

Antonella Bandiera, Horacio Larreguy, Elizabeth Parker-Magyar, Manuel Quintero α–β

An experiment in Bolivia on whether digital literacy training and fact-checks help people tell true news from false.

ReportINEGI · 2020

Propuesta para crear un comité de fechado de los ciclos económicos en México

Antón A. et al. · research associate

The proposal behind Mexico's business cycle dating committee, which INEGI formally created in 2021.

α–β authors listed alphabetically.

Experience

Research

2023 – now
PhD ResearcherMIT · IDSS, LIDS, SDSC
  • Lead author on black-box decomposition methods for explaining outcome differences across populations, compared against SHAP, ALE and Sobol approaches. Presented at NeurIPS 2024 (oral) and ICLR 2025 (workshop).
  • Built and optimized a Bayesian migration model with MCMC on MIT Supercloud, cutting runtime from 60 to 18 days.
2021 – 2023
Research Assistant to Horacio LarreguyHarvard / ITAM
  • Co-authored two projects; led the statistical analysis and implemented ML models in R and Python.
  • Scraped, cleaned and merged large datasets into reproducible pipelines; variable selection and predictive modeling with caret and glmnet.
2021 – 2022
Research Assistant to Fotini ChristiaMIT IDSS
  • Led the statistical analysis for an RCT on gender-based violence in Egypt, later published in Nature Human Behaviour: mixed-effects models, difference-in-differences, Bayesian methods and cross-validation.
2019 – 2020
Research Assistant, CIDE · INEGI · ITAMwith Victor Guerrero
  • Co-wrote the methodology chapter that led INEGI to create Mexico's business cycle dating committee.

Tools

PythonRMATLABPyTorchTensorFlowscikit-learnStataGitHPC (MIT Supercloud)LaTeX

Honors

2022
FUNED Master's Scholarshipfor graduate study abroad
2022
Research Awards, honors thesesApplied Mathematics, and separately in Economics · ITAM

Teaching

MIT

Fall 2026
MITx 18.6501x · Fundamentals of StatisticsInstructor & Teaching Assistant · MicroMasters Program in Statistics and Data Science (online)

Notes · MIT

Notes
Introduction to Game TheoryLecture notes (PDF)
Notes
Optimal TransportLecture notes (PDF)

Teaching assistant · ITAM

Fall 2021
Applied Research I / Causal InferenceMaster's in Applied Economics
  • Tutorials in R and Stata (in Spanish) on programming quasi-experimental methods (generalized DID, IV, RDD) and exporting results to LaTeX, plus a guide to event studies.
Fall 2021
Economic Research SeminarUndergraduate Economics · same materials as Applied Research I
Spring 2021
Dynamic Macroeconomics IMaster's in Economic Theory
  • MATLAB labs: the recursive neoclassical growth model, DSGE models, and Bellman equations with heterogeneous agents.